Tuesday, December 28, 2010

GOOD, BAD AND UGLY ABOUT THE HOME PRICE INDICES ...

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures for the US residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate both nationally as well as in 20 metropolitan regions. The indices are calculated monthly and published with a two month lag. New index levels are released at 9am Eastern Standard Time on the last Tuesday of every month.

GET THE LATEST CASE-SHILLER INDEX ... 

“The double-dip is almost here, as six cities set new lows for the period since the 2006 peaks. There is no
good news in October’s report. Home prices across the country continue to fall.”
says David M. Blitzer,
Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. "The trends we have seen over the past few
months have not changed."

The tax incentives are over and the national economy remained lackluster in October, the month covered by these data. Existing homes sales and housing starts have been reported for both October and November, and neither is giving any sense of optimism. On a year-over-year basis, sales are down more than 25% and the months’ supply of unsold homes is about 50% above where it was during the same months of last year. Housing starts are still hovering near 30-year lows. While delinquency rates might have seen some recent improvement, it is only on a relative basis. They are still well above their historic averages, in both the prime and sub-prime market.

OH, ABOUT THE GOOD, BAD AND UGLY ... FORGETABOUT THE GOOD ... IT'S STILL BAD AND UGLY.  NOW WHAT IMPACT DOES THIS 'LACKLUSTER' HOUSING MARKET HAVE ON LOCAL TAXES?  LET'S KEEP IT SIMPLE.  IF THE VALUE OF REAL ESTATE CONTINUES TO GO DOWN AND THE TAX REVENUE HAS TO KEEP AT A CERTAIN LEVEL TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SPENDING AND NEW PROGRAMS ... THEN WHERE DO THE TAX REVENUES COME FROM ... AH, YOU GUESSED IT ... "THE TAX FAIRY" ...